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打完伊朗又打擊分化了民主黨,特朗普賺了
2020-01-11 18:00   来源:  www.techtalkuk.com   评论:0 点击:

打完伊朗又打擊分化了民主黨,特朗普賺了在往伊拉克的美军基地扔了22枚导弹后,伊朗方面像是完成了复仇美国

在往伊拉克的美军基地扔了22枚导弹后,伊朗方面像是完成了复仇美国的心愿,暂时平息了国内高涨的反美情绪。对美国来说,袭击没有造成人员伤亡,只是基地被炸出了几个破洞,也是在能接受的范围之内。

After throwing 22 missiles at u. s.military bases in iraq, iran seems to have fulfilled its desire to avenge america, temporarily quelling rising anti-american sentiment at home. For the United States, the attack did not result in casualties, but the base was blown out of several holes, but also within acceptable limits.

目前的局面,可以说是特朗普最希望看到的。虽说特朗普的政策核心一直是“美国优先”,但今年是大选年,偶尔对外秀下“肌肉”、展示下美国的国威,对竞选连任或许会有帮助。

The current situation is arguably what Trump would most like to see. While the core of Trump's policy has always been \"America first,\"this year has been an election year, with the occasional \"muscle \"of America's power to show off, perhaps helpfully, for re-election.

当地时间8日晚中午(北京时间9日凌晨),在比预期时间推迟了一个小时后,特朗普出现在了媒体面前,就此前的伊朗导弹袭击发表讲话,开头第一句话就是:

At noon on the evening of the 8th of local time (in the early hours of the morning of the 9th of Beijing time), after an hour later than expected, Trump appeared in front of the media to deliver a speech on the previous Iranian missile attacks, the first sentence opening:

霸气而直接,这很特朗普。讲话持续了10分钟左右,特朗普讲完就潇洒离开了,没有给媒体任何提问的机会。这段讲话简单来说,谈了几点核心信息:

Overbearing and direct, it's Trump. After speaking for about 10 minutes, Trump left without giving the media a chance to ask questions. Briefly speaking, this passage talks about a few key messages:

既扬了国威,又给了伊朗台阶下。当然,伊朗在口头上可不能示弱。8日的导弹袭击发生后,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在讲话中称,袭击是“扇了美国一巴掌”,伊朗总统鲁哈尼随后也在会议上表示,如果美国再次“犯罪”,伊朗将会进行更加强烈的复仇。

It has given iran steps. Of course, Iran cannot verbally weaken. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the attack \"a slap in the face of the United States\" after the missile attack on the 8th, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later said at the meeting that Iran would take a stronger revenge if the United States \"committed a crime\" again.

昨天还有美国媒体爆料说,袭击可能是美伊两国默契设下的一个“局”。据说伊朗在袭击前知会了伊拉克,伊拉克转头就告诉了美国,让他们做好防御措施。具体情况已无从得知,但即便实情真是如此,恐怕哪一方都不会承认吧。但这至少说明,从一开始,美国和伊朗都没想过要全面冲突,恶化中东局势的意思。

Yesterday, the u. s. media reported that the attack may be a tacit agreement between the u. s. and iraq set up a \"bureau.\" Iran is said to have informed Iraq before the attack, and Iraq has turned its head to the United States, allowing them to defend themselves. The details are not known, but even if the truth is true, I'm afraid neither side will admit it. But at least that means that from the beginning, neither the US nor Iran thought of a full-blown conflict that would worsen the situation in the Middle East.

这一结果应该是特朗普乐意见到的。可如果纯粹从成果上考虑,美国是炸死了一位伊朗大人物,但也让伊朗政府转移了国内危机,民众更加团结了,而且圣战旅权力比以前还增加了,似乎又不是很划算。特朗普到底怎么想的?

The result should have been Trump's delight. But if purely on the merits, the u. s.has blown up a big iranian figure, but it has also shifted the iranian government away from the domestic crisis, the population has become more united, and the jihadist brigade has increased its power over the past, and it does not seem very cost-effective. What exactly did Trump think?

政治学上有个术语叫“聚旗效应”,意思是说,在涉及对外的重大国家和民族危机面前,国家领导人的国内支持率通常会急速增长。发动战争或者让国家处于战争边缘,便是“重大国家危机”的一种。

There is a term in politics called the \"flag-gathering effect,\" meaning that in the face of major national and national crises involving foreign countries, domestic support for national leaders usually grows rapidly. Launching war or putting the country on the brink of war is one of the \"major national crises \".

在美国历史上,这样的“聚旗效应”出现过好些次。1962年的古巴导弹危机和平解决后,肯尼迪的支持率从61%跃升至75%;1979年的伊朗人质事件发生前,卡特的支持率仅有可怜的28%,事件发生三个月后暴涨至58%;1990年海湾战争爆发后,老布什的支持率达到了史无前例的89%。

In the history of the United States, such a \"flag-gathering effect\" has occurred several times. After a peaceful settlement of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, Kennedy's approval rating jumped from 61% to 75%; before the Iranian hostage incident in 1979, Carter's approval rating was only a pitiful 28%, which surged to 58% three months after the incident; and after the Gulf War in 1990, Bush's approval rating reached an unprecedented 89%.

特朗普本人也尝到过“聚旗效应”的甜头。2017年4月下令恐袭叙利亚后,他的支持率从35%涨到了48%。但这里有两个问题需要注意:

Trump himself has tasted the \"flag effect \". His approval rating rose from 35 percent to 48 percent after ordering a terror attack on Syria in April 2017. But here are two issues to note:

一是肯尼迪、卡特和老布什面临的“重大国家危机”,显然比这次美伊冲突要重大得多。美国《赫芬顿邮报》此前的调查显示,支持特朗普下令炸死苏莱曼尼的美国人(43%)只稍稍多于反对者(38%)。对大部分美国人来说,他们其实并不关心遥远的伊朗的事。

The first is the \"major national crisis\" facing Kennedy, Carter and George W. Bush, which is clearly much more significant than this conflict between the United States and Iraq. Previous surveys by the Huffington Post have shown that only slightly more Americans (43%) than opponents (38%) supported Trump's order to kill Suleimanis. For most Americans, they don't really care about distant Iran.

BBC的一篇文章认为,除非美国取得辉煌的军事胜利或者陷入长期的血腥冲突,否则美国人对特朗普的看法最终可能不会有太大变化。

An article from the BBC argued that, unless the United States achieves a brilliant military victory or falls into a long-running bloody conflict, Americans'view of Trump may not change much in the end.

二是“聚旗效应”的影响时间非常有限。上边提到的三位前总统,肯尼迪被暗杀了,卡特和老布什最终都输掉了连任选举,都没落着好。而从目前几大民调机构的调查来看,特朗普支持率也没出现明显变化。

Second, the influence time of \"gathering flag effect\" is very limited. The three former presidents mentioned above, kennedy was assassinated, carter and bush both lost re-elections, and they all lost. And Trump's approval rating hasn't changed significantly in the current surveys of several major pollsters.

在今天凌晨的演讲中,特朗普又攻击了一把奥巴马,称正是奥巴马在任期间“签署愚蠢的伊朗核协议”,导致伊朗得到了1500亿美元,并用这笔钱进行“恐怖分子的狂欢”。对奥巴马的指责实际上经不起事实推敲,但从宣传角度讲,至少达到了散布“伊朗祸源是民主党总统奥巴马”的目的。

In his speech early this morning, Trump attacked Obama again, saying it was Obama who \"signed the stupid Iran nuclear deal\" during his time in office that led to Iran receiving $150 billion and using the money for a \"terrorist spree.\" The accusation against mr obama doesn't actually stand up to scrutiny, but it has at least reached the goal of spreading \"iran's scourge is democratic president barack obama\" from a propaganda standpoint.

作为民主党内著名的反战派,候选人之一的桑德斯在推特中写道,“越南,我对了;伊拉克,我对了。我会尽己所能阻止伊朗战争。”另一位候选人、前纽约市长布隆伯格则认为,苏莱曼尼手上沾满了美国人的鲜血,“谁也不会认为我们干掉他是做错了事”。

Sanders, one of the leading anti-war parties in the Democratic Party, tweeted,\" Vietnam, I'm right; Iraq, I'm right. I will do everything I can to stop the Iranian war. Another candidate, former new york mayor bloomberg, said mr sulimani's hands were covered in american blood and that \"no one would think we had done anything wrong to kill him \".

在下个月就将开启党内初选的时节,民主党大佬们继医保问题出现分歧后,又在伊朗问题上意见不一,令大选前景蒙上了一层阴影。

At a time when the party's primary starts next month, democrats have split on iran following a health-care dispute, casting a cloud over the outlook for the election.

唯一值得民主党人欣慰的是,《赫芬顿邮报》的同一份民调显示,62%的受访者在伊朗问题上表示“信任”拜登。当过8年副总统、长期任参议院外交委员会主席,让美国人更愿意相信拜登丰富的政治经验。

The only relief for Democrats is that the same Huffington Post poll showed 62 percent of respondents said they \"trust\" Biden on Iran. After eight years as vice president and longtime chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, Americans are more likely to believe in Biden's rich political experience.

然而拜登可能成也经验败也经验。小布什在2003年发动伊拉克战争时,拜登是民主党内为数不多的支持者之一。然而当奥巴马上台,越来越多证据表明伊拉克拥有化学武器是谎言时,拜登转而表示当初自己并没有支持伊拉克战争。在美国民众受够了政客谎话连天的当下,拜登过往摇摆的立场或将成为他入主白宫最大的障碍。

Biden, however, may also experience defeat. When George W. Bush launched the Iraq war in 2003, Biden was one of the few supporters of the Democratic Party. But when mr obama came to power and there was growing evidence that iraq's chemical weapons were a lie, mr biden turned to say he had not supported the iraq war. At a time when Americans are fed up with politicians lying all day, Biden's swaying stance may be the biggest obstacle to his entry into the White House.

如此看来,特朗普可谓是用最小的代价获得了最大的政治利益。当然,这一切是建立在伊朗真的不会全面跟美国开战的基础上。

In this way, Trump is reaping the most political benefits at minimal cost. All this, of course, is based on the fact that Iran really won't go to full war with the United States.


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